Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Tottenham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $5K held · ends May 30, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$4.7K
$-3.3K
0.6¢ → 0.9¢
+41% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
729h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $1.7K | $2.8K | +$1.1K | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yes | $1.9K | $1.9K | $-3.6K | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $1.5K | $20.69 | -$788.66 | 11% 20-166 (186) |
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $21.62 | $11.03 | -$10.59 | 60% 1348-884 (2232) |
DR DreamwireCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $1.76 | $0.38 | -$1.37 | 83% 2683-538 (3221) |
Invested
$1,670.07
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
Invested
$1,910.44
Value
$1.9K
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
Invested
$1,542.59
Value
$20.69
PnL
-$788.66
Record
11%
20-166 (186)
Invested
$21.62
Value
$11.03
PnL
-$10.59
Record
60%
1348-884 (2232)
Invested
$1.76
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$1.37
Record
83%
2683-538 (3221)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.