Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $6 held · ends Jan 8, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$6.13
-$540.28
8.4¢ → 0.1¢
-99% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
49 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0 | $1.82 | +$1.82 | 39% 965-1508 (2473) |
RA rated<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $1.65 | $1.7 | +$0.05 | 29% 2865-6952 (9817) |
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR | Yesavg 20.3¢ | $516.32 | $1.27 | -$515.04 | 79% 332-89 (421) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.25 | $0.25 | -$17.61 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
 WordleAddictCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $9.58 | $0.08 | -$9.5 | 61% 941-614 (1555) |
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
$1.82
PnL
+$1.82
Record
39%
965-1508 (2473)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.7
PnL
+$0.05
Record
29%
2865-6952 (9817)
Invested
$516.32
Value
$1.27
PnL
-$515.04
Record
79%
332-89 (421)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$17.61
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
WordleAddictCTR<$100Invested
$9.58
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$9.5
Record
61%
941-614 (1555)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.