Consensus PnL $28K · win rate 81% (261–61, n=322) · was PM monthly #486 · holds 16 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$28.1K
Record
261W / 61L
Win Rate
81.0%
of 322 settled
Batting Avg
41.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#409
Source
PM monthly #486
Trades
704
Markets
512
Volume
$5.7M
Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 16 on the consensus side (38%)- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $22K · now 84¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (73% of 49)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?Yes $3.4K · now 33¢ · in at 26¢with the consensus (75% of 10)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?Yes $3.1K · now 14¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?No $2.9K · now 33¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?Yes $2.2K · now 45¢ · in at 35¢with the consensus (33% of 19)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?No $1.5K · now 43¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?No $1.2K · now 45¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Yes $822 · now 14¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
373 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 80¢- Politics
+10 pts
side won 96% of 69 · avg entry 85¢
ROI −4%
- Entertainment
+7 pts
side won 83% of 203 · avg entry 76¢
ROI −3%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 88% of 17 at an average 89¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 24% of 41)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 43% of 14)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 71% of 31)
- 70¢ and up: 77%(won 99% of 287)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.