Consensus PnL $672K · win rate 59% (572–403, n=975) · was PM monthly #317 · holds 17 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$672.3K
Record
572W / 403L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 975 settled
Batting Avg
55.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1218
Source
PM monthly #317 + pinned
Trades
48,348
Markets
1,760
Volume
$35.4M
Top consensus positions
17 in listed consensus markets · 14 of 17 on the consensus side (82%)- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $56K · now 70¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $36K · now 72¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (67% of 67)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $36K · now 71¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?No $31K · now 86¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (38% of 16)
- Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No $30K · now 68¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (52% of 58)
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes $13K · now 91¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $11K · now 68¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (60% of 60)
- Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes $11K · now 76¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (57% of 14)
Specialties
1,140 settled consensus markets · held side won 53% at an average entry of 50¢- Entertainment
+13 pts
side won 60% of 170 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +7%
- Mentions
+11 pts
side won 67% of 78 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +6%
- Elections
+3 pts
side won 42% of 225 · avg entry 39¢
ROI −3%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 31% of 45 at an average 43¢ entry (−12 pts against the price), ROI −10%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 34%(won 9% of 383)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 44% of 151)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 64% of 209)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 94% of 397)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.