Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.1K
$24.43
96.9¢ → 99.8¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
167h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $925.46 | $927.14 | +$31.7 | 41% 6741-9586 (16327) |
QU quietparcel | Noavg 99.6¢ | $174.63 | $144.71 | +$0 | 50% 9499-9511 (19010) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.21 | $0.21 | -$6.73 | 29% 2289-5648 (7937) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $0.66 | $0.09 | -$0.57 | 17% 1066-5342 (6408) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.01 | $0.02 | +$0.01 | 24% 304-947 (1251) |
Invested
$925.46
Value
$927.14
PnL
+$31.7
Record
41%
6741-9586 (16327)
Invested
$174.63
Value
$144.71
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
9499-9511 (19010)
Invested
$0.21
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$6.73
Record
29%
2289-5648 (7937)
Invested
$0.66
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$0.57
Record
17%
1066-5342 (6408)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.02
PnL
+$0.01
Record
24%
304-947 (1251)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.