Consensus PnL $33K · win rate 44% (6086–7685, n=13771) · PM monthly #316 · holds 96 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$32.8K
Record
6086W / 7685L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 13771 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2304
Source
PM monthly #316
Record (90 d)
3486/7187 · 49%
Trades
34,655
Markets
25,183
Volume
$1.5M
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Top consensus positions
96 in listed consensus markets · 77 of 96 on the consensus side (80%)- Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?No $212 · now 95¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (67% of 58)
- Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?No $178 · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on November 4?No $146 · now 100¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on November 4?No $145 · now 99¢ · in at 11¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?No $145 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (40% of 6)
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on November 4?No $144 · now 95¢ · in at 17¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?No $117 · now 97¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (85% of 34)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?No $114 · now 99¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (71% of 21)
Specialties
5,067 settled consensus markets · held side won 36% at an average entry of 39¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where quietparcel's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 33% of 594 at an average 37¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 60%(won 1% of 3032)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 35% of 106)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 60% of 183)
- 70¢ and up: 34%(won 96% of 1746)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.