Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$19.0K
$225.16
97.5¢ → 99.1¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ScottyNooo | Noavg 98.1¢ | $21.0K | $16.0K | +$188.65 | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$34 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
 2B9S | Noavg 5.3¢ | $6.26 | $117.93 | +$111.61 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR<$100 | Yesavg 83.4¢ | $100 | $1.14 | -$98.86 | 57% 1114-837 (1951) |
ME melganisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 56.5¢ | $10.43 | $0.18 | -$10.26 | 75% 1597-541 (2138) |
ScottyNoooInvested
$21,045.81
Value
$16.0K
PnL
+$188.65
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$2,792.87
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$34
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
2B9SInvested
$6.26
Value
$117.93
PnL
+$111.61
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100Invested
$100
Value
$1.14
PnL
-$98.86
Record
57%
1114-837 (1951)
Invested
$10.43
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$10.26
Record
75%
1597-541 (2138)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.