Will Trump resign before 2027?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.6K
$9.49
96.8¢ → 98¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
57 57284910 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$1.98 | 100% 23-0 (23) |
 Donkov | Noavg 92.3¢ | $249.08 | $259.55 | +$10.46 | 71% 968-396 (1364) |
0X 0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $56.4 | $58.8 | +$2.4 | 97% 140-4 (144) |
 poorersob<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $9.19 | $9.31 | +$0.12 | 72% 1086-426 (1512) |
 tetrase<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $4.87 | $4.9 | +$0.04 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
EA EatprayloveCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $8.95 | $3.43 | -$5.52 | 57% 766-585 (1351) |
Invested
$1,309.44
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$1.98
Record
100%
23-0 (23)
DonkovInvested
$249.08
Value
$259.55
PnL
+$10.46
Record
71%
968-396 (1364)
Invested
$56.4
Value
$58.8
PnL
+$2.4
Record
97%
140-4 (144)
poorersob<$100Invested
$9.19
Value
$9.31
PnL
+$0.12
Record
72%
1086-426 (1512)
tetrase<$100Invested
$4.87
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.04
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
Invested
$8.95
Value
$3.43
PnL
-$5.52
Record
57%
766-585 (1351)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.