Consensus PnL $2.9K · win rate 95% (19–1, n=20) · PM monthly #449 · holds 21 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$2.9K
Record
19W / 1L
Win Rate
95.0%
of 20 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#160
Source
PM monthly #449
Trades
11
Markets
46
Volume
$229.0K
Top consensus positions
21 in listed consensus markets · 20 of 21 on the consensus side (95%)- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $41K · now 97¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes $17K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (80% of 25)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $9.8K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseNo $8.9K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $5.7K · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?No $5.4K · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (100% of 13)
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $4.4K · now 98¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
- Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No $4.0K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (86% of 14)
Specialties
14 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 95¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 57284910's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 100%(won 100% of 14)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.