Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 64¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$333.66

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 63.5¢

+38% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,642

Combined PnL+$274.46

No1 trader

Total Value$182.08

Total Shares500

Combined PnL+$59.2

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FortunatelyFestive	Yesavg 41.9¢	$506.67	$758.59	+$251.92	84% 133-25 (158)
KE Kevindoto	Yesavg 58.6¢	$283.7	$275.33	+$15.31	80% 437-110 (547)
TR troimCTR	Noavg 24.7¢	$123.37	$182.08	+$59.2	36% 397-691 (1088)
RA rated<$100	Yesavg 11.3¢	$1.34	$7.42	+$6.08	29% 2865-6952 (9817)
LE LetTheGoodTimesRoll<$100	Yesavg 30.8¢	$2.73	$1.97	+$1.14	45% 3592-4351 (7943)

FortunatelyFestive

Yes

Invested

$506.67

Value

$758.59

PnL

+$251.92

Record

84%

133-25 (158)

Kevindoto

Yes

Invested

$283.7

Value

$275.33

PnL

+$15.31

Record

80%

437-110 (547)

troimCTR

Invested

$123.37

Value

$182.08

PnL

+$59.2

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

rated<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.34

Value

$7.42

PnL

+$6.08

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

LetTheGoodTimesRoll<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$1.97

PnL

+$1.14

Record

45%

3592-4351 (7943)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.4%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.