Consensus PnL $563K · win rate 78% (236–66, n=302) · was PM monthly #893 · holds 25 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$563.1K
Record
236W / 66L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 302 settled
Batting Avg
61.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#496
Source
PM monthly #893 + pinned
Trades
15,946
Markets
630
Volume
$13.0M
Top consensus positions
25 in listed consensus markets · 24 of 25 on the consensus side (96%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $84K · now 84¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No $64K · now 95¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (97% of 30)
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No $56K · now 97¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (68% of 34)
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?No $50K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (71% of 14)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $44K · now 89¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (57% of 54)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $27K · now 65¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No $27K · now 89¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (55% of 38)
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $26K · now 52¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (58% of 33)
Specialties
524 settled consensus markets · held side won 84% at an average entry of 82¢- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 89% of 114 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +7%
- Elections
+4 pts
side won 83% of 82 · avg entry 78¢
ROI −1%
- Economy
+5 pts
side won 96% of 24 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 91% of 11 at an average 96¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 15% of 48)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 55% of 20)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 59% of 27)
- 70¢ and up: 82%(won 94% of 429)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.