FortunatelyFestive

Consensus PnL $35K · win rate 85% (97–17, n=114) · hand-picked wallet · holds 8 consensus positions

0x3cafe19c...038c6d8aPolymarket

⚖️Arb🎯Sharp🎰Degen

Consensus PnL

$34.5K

Record

97W / 17L

Win Rate

85.0%

of 114 settled

Batting Avg

73.2%

Status

Profitable

Win-rate rank

#343

Source

Hand-picked

Trades

3,268

Markets

184

Volume

$459.4K

Top consensus positions

8 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 8 on the consensus side (88%)

Will GameStop acquire eBay?No $1.6K · now 95¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (97% of 30)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $1.1K · now 84¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?Yes $759 · now 64¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No $259 · now 97¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (68% of 34)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes $150 · now 13¢ · in at 79¢against the consensus (No)
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?No $118 · now 94¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
NATO article 5 before 2027?No $100 · now 96¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?No $10 · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (92% of 12)

Specialties

105 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 89¢

No topic with 10 or more settled markets where FortunatelyFestive's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.

Weakest: Politics — held side won 85% of 26 at an average 91¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI +3%.

Entry prices (share of settled markets)

under 30¢: 4%(won 0% of 4)
30–50¢: 1%(won 0% of 1)
50–70¢: 1%(won 100% of 1)
70¢ and up: 94%(won 92% of 99)

Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.