Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 95¢ · $832 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
5
No 80%
$832.36
-$8.99
87.8¢ → 95¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 95%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
728h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 88.4¢ | $438.01 | $470.58 | +$32.57 | 82% 1758-394 (2152) |
ME melonmanm | Noavg 87¢ | $176.67 | $142.62 | -$34.05 | 65% 527-282 (809) |
 Car | Noavg 88.4¢ | $123.42 | $132.62 | +$9.2 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 TBill1<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $59.75 | $67.57 | +$7.82 | 45% 154-188 (342) |
 mombilCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.5¢ | $43.49 | $18.96 | -$24.53 | 55% 1191-966 (2157) |
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$438.01
Value
$470.58
PnL
+$32.57
Record
82%
1758-394 (2152)
Invested
$176.67
Value
$142.62
PnL
-$34.05
Record
65%
527-282 (809)
CarInvested
$123.42
Value
$132.62
PnL
+$9.2
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
TBill1<$100Invested
$59.75
Value
$67.57
PnL
+$7.82
Record
45%
154-188 (342)
mombilCTR<$100Invested
$43.49
Value
$18.96
PnL
-$24.53
Record
55%
1191-966 (2157)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.