Consensus PnL $82K · win rate 44% (110–138, n=248) · was PM monthly #978 · holds 44 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$82.1K
Record
110W / 138L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 248 settled
Batting Avg
55.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2019
Source
PM monthly #978
Trades
718
Markets
474
Volume
$5.5M
Top consensus positions
44 in listed consensus markets · 27 of 44 on the consensus side (61%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $21K · now 84¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- US recession by end of 2026?No $21K · now 95¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (96% of 27)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $19K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (80% of 107)
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $14K · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (83% of 48)
- Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?No $6.6K · now 81¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (57% of 14)
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $5.0K · now 54¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (42% of 27)
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No $4.4K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (97% of 30)
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $2.0K · now 40¢ · in at 28¢with the consensus (83% of 42)
Specialties
193 settled consensus markets · held side won 61% at an average entry of 52¢- Tech
+28 pts
side won 86% of 14 · avg entry 57¢
ROI −1%
- Politics
+21 pts
side won 78% of 18 · avg entry 57¢
ROI −1%
- Finance
+10 pts
side won 42% of 24 · avg entry 32¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 48% of 52 at an average 51¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 36%(won 12% of 69)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 63% of 16)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 81% of 31)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 97% of 77)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.