Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.0K
$401.82
54.3¢ → 89¢
+64% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 62.8¢ | $456 | $661.24 | +$190.71 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
 2B9S | Noavg 29¢ | $69.89 | $219.31 | +$144.6 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710<$100 | Noavg 50.7¢ | $52.71 | $95.65 | +$42.94 | 51% 2097-1976 (4073) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $32.3 | $48.18 | +$15.89 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $2.2 | $9.88 | +$7.69 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
viniiInvested
$456
Value
$661.24
PnL
+$190.71
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
2B9SInvested
$69.89
Value
$219.31
PnL
+$144.6
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
Invested
$52.71
Value
$95.65
PnL
+$42.94
Record
51%
2097-1976 (4073)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04<$100Invested
$32.3
Value
$48.18
PnL
+$15.89
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$2.2
Value
$9.88
PnL
+$7.69
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.