Will Ty Jerome win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 100¢ · $130 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 17%
$129.68
-$27.26
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $124.79 | $124.69 | -$0.11 | 49% 9109-9642 (18751) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.12 | $1.98 | -$10.23 | 79% 10651-2799 (13450) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $11.78 | $1.79 | -$9.99 | 60% 7190-4757 (11947) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $3.55 | $0.53 | -$3.02 | 25% 185-554 (739) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $2.59 | $0.39 | -$2.2 | 61% 13978-8791 (22769) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $2.02 | $0.3 | -$1.71 | 30% 2194-5073 (7267) |
Invested
$124.79
Value
$124.69
PnL
-$0.11
Record
49%
9109-9642 (18751)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$13.12
Value
$1.98
PnL
-$10.23
Record
79%
10651-2799 (13450)
Invested
$11.78
Value
$1.79
PnL
-$9.99
Record
60%
7190-4757 (11947)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$0.53
PnL
-$3.02
Record
25%
185-554 (739)
Invested
$2.59
Value
$0.39
PnL
-$2.2
Record
61%
13978-8791 (22769)
Invested
$2.02
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$1.71
Record
30%
2194-5073 (7267)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.