Consensus PnL $667 · win rate 59% (9684–6728, n=16412) · PM monthly #81 · holds 100 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$667.02
Record
9684W / 6728L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 16412 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1225
Source
PM monthly #81
Record (90 d)
3222/6547 · 49%
Trades
89,712
Markets
28,622
Volume
$2.0M
Top consensus positions
100 in listed consensus markets · 92 of 100 on the consensus side (92%)- Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?No $935 · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (44% of 18)
- Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?Yes $403 · now 22¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No $342 · now 66¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (60% of 25)
- Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?No $192 · now 99¢ · in at 98¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?Yes $154 · now 15¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 11)
- Will St. Louis City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?Yes $95 · now 6¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Xavier Becerra win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026?No $88 · now 51¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (94% of 17)
- Will Héctor Osuna Jaime win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?No $85 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
4,589 settled consensus markets · held side won 39% at an average entry of 42¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where northdrawer's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Weather — held side won 67% of 710 at an average 70¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 57%(won 0% of 2617)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 44% of 110)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 61% of 163)
- 70¢ and up: 37%(won 96% of 1699)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.