Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 0.9¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 40%
$1.0K
$-1.0K
65.2¢ → 0.9¢
-99% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
133h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960 | Yesavg 82.4¢ | $366.81 | $441.17 | +$74.36 | 63% 175-101 (276) |
LA lava-lavaCTR | Noavg 73.8¢ | $437.26 | $178.66 | -$258.61 | 43% 535-721 (1256) |
 BiDiFakePollsCTR | Noavg 62.5¢ | $1.1K | $157.15 | -$882.36 | 58% 189-137 (326) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271 | Yesavg 82.3¢ | $128.98 | $141.03 | +$12.05 | 28% 5987-15755 (21742) |
 Sardinianshepherd | Yesavg 82.9¢ | $107.8 | $128.83 | +$21.03 | 65% 931-507 (1438) |
Invested
$366.81
Value
$441.17
PnL
+$74.36
Record
63%
175-101 (276)
Invested
$437.26
Value
$178.66
PnL
-$258.61
Record
43%
535-721 (1256)
BiDiFakePollsCTRInvested
$1,069.37
Value
$157.15
PnL
-$882.36
Record
58%
189-137 (326)
Invested
$128.98
Value
$141.03
PnL
+$12.05
Record
28%
5987-15755 (21742)
SardinianshepherdInvested
$107.8
Value
$128.83
PnL
+$21.03
Record
65%
931-507 (1438)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.