Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $24K held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$24.4K
$4.0K
83.1¢ → 99.2¢
+19% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1581h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Noavg 82.9¢ | $19.9K | $23.8K | +$3.9K | 63% 353-204 (557) |
 vinii | Noavg 90¢ | $4.5 | $491.04 | +$101.34 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $51.71 | $51.44 | -$0.28 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 Tenebrus7<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $4.26 | $5.22 | +$0.96 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $1 | $4 | +$3 | 58% 108-79 (187) |
Invested
$19,919.4
Value
$23.8K
PnL
+$3.9K
Record
63%
353-204 (557)
viniiInvested
$4.5
Value
$491.04
PnL
+$101.34
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
Invested
$51.71
Value
$51.44
PnL
-$0.28
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Tenebrus7<$100Invested
$4.26
Value
$5.22
PnL
+$0.96
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
Invested
$1
Value
$4
PnL
+$3
Record
58%
108-79 (187)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.