Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will USC Trojans win the 2027 CFP National Championship?

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.1¢ · $538 held · ends Jan 26, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Jan 26, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$537.59

Combined PnL

-$749.03

Smart Money Entry

1.2¢ → 1.1¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$537.59

Total Shares46,747

Combined PnL-$749.03

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

342h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$274.99	$237.03	-$37.03	41% 1998-2833 (4831)
MI milkteabobaCTR	Yes	$197.47	$197.47	+$67.07	68% 40-19 (59)
ND ndb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$29.49	$44.14	+$14.66	66% 910-479 (1389)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$27.52	$34.5	+$6.98	56% 18394-14718 (33112)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.8K	$22.36	-$798.25	45% 2377-2944 (5321)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$4.55	$2.09	-$2.46	56% 3078-2437 (5515)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$274.99

Value

$237.03

PnL

-$37.03

Record

41%

1998-2833 (4831)

milkteabobaCTR

Yes

Invested

$197.47

Value

$197.47

PnL

+$67.07

Record

68%

40-19 (59)

ndb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.49

Value

$44.14

PnL

+$14.66

Record

66%

910-479 (1389)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.52

Value

$34.5

PnL

+$6.98

Record

56%

18394-14718 (33112)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,752.67

Value

$22.36

PnL

-$798.25

Record

45%

2377-2944 (5321)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.55

Value

$2.09

PnL

-$2.46

Record

56%

3078-2437 (5515)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

342h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.3%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4334.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

4434.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.