Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 44¢ · $225 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$224.51
$125.93
Research grade
NeutralNo at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
4876h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
108 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 theta-thunbergCTR | Noavg 24.5¢ | $55.97 | $100.55 | +$49.15 | 56% 429-337 (766) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $16.17 | $64.7 | +$48.52 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
FO Folletin<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $21.21 | $47.5 | +$27.99 | 69% 423-188 (611) |
 Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $7.76 | $6.96 | -$0.79 | 62% 649-396 (1045) |
 Dr.mettCTR<$100 | Noavg 34.1¢ | $3.32 | $4.38 | +$1.06 | 86% 1417-234 (1651) |
theta-thunbergCTRInvested
$55.97
Value
$100.55
PnL
+$49.15
Record
56%
429-337 (766)
2B9S<$100Invested
$16.17
Value
$64.7
PnL
+$48.52
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
Invested
$21.21
Value
$47.5
PnL
+$27.99
Record
69%
423-188 (611)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100Invested
$7.76
Value
$6.96
PnL
-$0.79
Record
62%
649-396 (1045)
Dr.mettCTR<$100Invested
$3.32
Value
$4.38
PnL
+$1.06
Record
86%
1417-234 (1651)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.