Consensus PnL $201K · win rate 63% (253–151, n=404) · hand-picked wallet · holds 26 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$201.3K
Record
253W / 151L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 404 settled
Batting Avg
60.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1020
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
137,354
Markets
1,172
Volume
$15.4M
Top consensus positions
26 in listed consensus markets · 17 of 26 on the consensus side (65%)- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes $26K · now 71¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (69% of 26)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $21K · now 84¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $11K · now 96¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Yes $11K · now 95¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (65% of 26)
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $11K · now 98¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No $9.9K · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (79% of 14)
- Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Yes $6.9K · now 28¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes $4.9K · now 28¢ · in at 22¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
Specialties
595 settled consensus markets · held side won 65% at an average entry of 59¢- Geopolitics
+7 pts
side won 75% of 184 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +1%
- Esports
+13 pts
side won 63% of 57 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +14%
- Elections
+3 pts
side won 38% of 79 · avg entry 35¢
ROI −3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 8% of 166)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 49% of 51)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 79% of 87)
- 70¢ and up: 49%(won 96% of 291)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.