Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $18K held · ends May 2, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$18.1K
$1.2K
85.6¢ → 93.5¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
497h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
X1 X1234567 | Noavg 87¢ | $14.1K | $15.0K | +$961.96 | — 6-0 (6) |
DA dancingmonkey1 | Noavg 77.7¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$144.29 | 54% 1253-1088 (2341) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 79.8¢ | $698.69 | $766 | +$67.31 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 81.1¢ | $410.98 | $427.96 | +$16.98 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
 FrozenParasite<$100 | No | $94.97 | $94.97 | +$18.82 | 55% 463-373 (836) |
Invested
$14,073.16
Value
$15.0K
PnL
+$961.96
Record
—
6-0 (6)
Invested
$1,656.51
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$144.29
Record
54%
1253-1088 (2341)
Invested
$698.69
Value
$766
PnL
+$67.31
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$410.98
Value
$427.96
PnL
+$16.98
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
FrozenParasite<$100Invested
$94.97
Value
$94.97
PnL
+$18.82
Record
55%
463-373 (836)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.