Consensus PnL $36K · win rate 54% (1116–946, n=2062) · was PM monthly #991 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$35.5K
Record
1116W / 946L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 2062 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1489
Source
PM monthly #991
Trades
744
Markets
2,531
Volume
$2.4M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 7 on the consensus side (86%)- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?Yes $2.8K · now 47¢ · in at 35¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
- Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?No $1.8K · now 88¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- LoL: Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - Worlds PlayoffsDplus KIA $934 · now 42¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (Bilibili Gaming)
- Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes $727 · now 70¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?Yes $221 · now 8¢ · in at 7¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $220 · now 44¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (63% of 64)
- Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $55 · now 3¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
Specialties
1,560 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 54¢- Esports
+22 pts
side won 76% of 1517 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +11%
- NFL
+29 pts
side won 83% of 18 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +32%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 43% of 127)
- 30–50¢: 29%(won 70% of 459)
- 50–70¢: 45%(won 82% of 706)
- 70¢ and up: 17%(won 88% of 268)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.