Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$3.2K
$723.68
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
721h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
12 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE dedidanc | Yesavg 49.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$176.13 | 57% 103-77 (180) |
 FrozenParasite | Yes | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$403.79 | 55% 463-373 (836) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | $189.52 | $189.52 | +$138.16 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 45.1¢ | $154.18 | $164.51 | +$10.33 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Noavg 60.2¢ | $62.94 | $58.22 | -$4.72 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
Invested
$1,402.09
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$176.13
Record
57%
103-77 (180)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$1,187.93
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$403.79
Record
55%
463-373 (836)
Invested
$189.52
Value
$189.52
PnL
+$138.16
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$154.18
Value
$164.51
PnL
+$10.33
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$62.94
Value
$58.22
PnL
-$4.72
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.