Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $21 held · ends Jan 8, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$21.49
-$31.28
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
23 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $18.29 | $18.32 | +$0.03 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
RA rated<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $1.89 | $1.89 | +$0 | 29% 2865-6952 (9817) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $14.74 | $1 | -$13.74 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.25 | $0.25 | -$17.61 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
 flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0 | $0.03 | +$0.03 | 39% 965-1508 (2473) |
Invested
$18.29
Value
$18.32
PnL
+$0.03
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
Invested
$1.89
Value
$1.89
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
2865-6952 (9817)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$14.74
Value
$1
PnL
-$13.74
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$17.61
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
$0.03
PnL
+$0.03
Record
39%
965-1508 (2473)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.