Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 3m?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 10¢ · $376 held · ended Nov 1

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$375.79

Combined PnL

-$271.79

Smart Money Entry

15.8¢ → 10¢

-37% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$355.64

Total Shares3,975

Combined PnL-$277.43

No1 trader

Total Value$20.15

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$5.64

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR	Yesavg 15.8¢	$595.09	$343.7	-$251.39	36% 635-1125 (1760)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.38	$20.15	+$5.64	28% 5957-15587 (21544)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.8¢	$25.49	$5.3	-$20.2	37% 1395-2381 (3776)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$7.84	$4.19	-$3.65	35% 107-199 (306)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$4.17	$2.2	-$1.97	55% 5875-4772 (10647)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$0.48	$0.26	-$0.22	17% 221-1066 (1287)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR

Yes

Invested

$595.09

Value

$343.7

PnL

-$251.39

Record

36%

635-1125 (1760)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$20.38

Value

$20.15

PnL

+$5.64

Record

28%

5957-15587 (21544)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.49

Value

$5.3

PnL

-$20.2

Record

37%

1395-2381 (3776)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.84

Value

$4.19

PnL

-$3.65

Record

35%

107-199 (306)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.17

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$1.97

Record

55%

5875-4772 (10647)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.22

Record

17%

221-1066 (1287)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.5%

10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$770.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

870.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.