Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 70¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$3.8K
$161.39
49¢ → 70¢
+43% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
61h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MaxVision | Yesavg 51¢ | $1.5K | $2.1K | +$555 | 37% 42-73 (115) |
ZX zxdwCTR | Noavg 60.6¢ | $1.4K | $744.57 | -$688.03 | 82% 37-8 (45) |
SS ssddssd | Yesavg 45.8¢ | $413.71 | $627.43 | +$218.23 | 52% 338-316 (654) |
TO Tokor | Yesavg 39¢ | $120.01 | $215.4 | +$95.39 | 62% 795-490 (1285) |
 PippiTraderCTR | Noavg 33.9¢ | $180.77 | $160.2 | -$20.57 | 61% 313-200 (513) |
DI Dimpled-Foal<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $3.93 | $5.25 | +$1.36 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
Invested
$1,530
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$555
Record
37%
42-73 (115)
Invested
$1,409.33
Value
$744.57
PnL
-$688.03
Record
82%
37-8 (45)
Invested
$413.71
Value
$627.43
PnL
+$218.23
Record
52%
338-316 (654)
Invested
$120.01
Value
$215.4
PnL
+$95.39
Record
62%
795-490 (1285)
PippiTraderCTRInvested
$180.77
Value
$160.2
PnL
-$20.57
Record
61%
313-200 (513)
Invested
$3.93
Value
$5.25
PnL
+$1.36
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.