Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 87¢ · $26K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$26.1K
-$309.82
93.9¢ → 87¢
-7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
77h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxdw | Noavg 94¢ | $25.3K | $22.9K | $-1.9K | 82% 37-8 (45) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 6¢ | $967.42 | $2.2K | +$1.2K | 62% 795-490 (1285) |
SS ssddssdCTR | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $344.83 | $541.86 | +$197.07 | 52% 338-316 (654) |
SM SmallFishGamblerCTR | Yesavg 7.6¢ | $160.59 | $315.3 | +$154.72 | 44% 20-25 (45) |
 PippiTrader<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $98.54 | $98.54 | +$1.74 | 61% 313-200 (513) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $0.7 | $0.6 | -$0.1 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
Invested
$25,332.21
Value
$22.9K
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
82%
37-8 (45)
Invested
$967.42
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
62%
795-490 (1285)
Invested
$344.83
Value
$541.86
PnL
+$197.07
Record
52%
338-316 (654)
Invested
$160.59
Value
$315.3
PnL
+$154.72
Record
44%
20-25 (45)
PippiTrader<$100Invested
$98.54
Value
$98.54
PnL
+$1.74
Record
61%
313-200 (513)
Invested
$0.7
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$0.1
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.