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39
Consensus PnL $20K · win rate 65% (22–12, n=34) · PM monthly #636 · holds 8 consensus positions
0x39d807a9...ff47f064Polymarket
🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$20.3K
Record
22W / 12L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 34 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#952
Source
PM monthly #636
Trades
23
Markets
47
Volume
$179.2K
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 8 on the consensus side (0%)- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?Yes $3.1K · now 41¢ · in at 68¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.6K · now 59¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.9K · now 49¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (No)
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?Yes $315 · now 13¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in November?Yes $145 · now 6¢ · in at 4¢against the consensus (No)
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in November?Yes $124 · now 4¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in November?Yes $106 · now 2¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (No)
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in November?Yes $44 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
32 settled consensus markets · held side won 69% at an average entry of 44¢- Soccer
+26 pts
side won 70% of 27 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +36%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 56% of 9)
- 30–50¢: 38%(won 67% of 12)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 75% of 8)
- 70¢ and up: 9%(won 100% of 3)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.