Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in November?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 93¢ · $38K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$37.5K
$128.96
94.8¢ → 93.3¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
86h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxdw | Noavg 94.8¢ | $33.1K | $32.9K | -$270.02 | 82% 37-8 (45) |
0X 0x963137a0BA0B02EBf6F37710023Cc1B0303289A1-1764031525036 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $2.9K | $2.8K | -$51.02 | 82% 234-52 (286) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $920.97 | $1.2K | +$314.95 | 62% 795-490 (1285) |
SS ssddssdCTR | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $191.15 | $284.38 | +$93.24 | 52% 338-316 (654) |
ST stupid22 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $190.4 | $188 | -$2.9 | 94% 412-26 (438) |
SM SmallFishGamblerCTR | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $100 | $144.7 | +$44.7 | 44% 20-25 (45) |
Invested
$33,138.66
Value
$32.9K
PnL
-$270.02
Record
82%
37-8 (45)
Invested
$2,863.52
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$51.02
Record
82%
234-52 (286)
Invested
$920.97
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$314.95
Record
62%
795-490 (1285)
Invested
$191.15
Value
$284.38
PnL
+$93.24
Record
52%
338-316 (654)
Invested
$190.4
Value
$188
PnL
-$2.9
Record
94%
412-26 (438)
Invested
$100
Value
$144.7
PnL
+$44.7
Record
44%
20-25 (45)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.