Consensus PnL -$134K · win rate 95% (306–15, n=321) · was PM monthly #268 · holds 32 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-133.8K
Record
306W / 15L
Win Rate
95.0%
of 321 settled
Batting Avg
79.5%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#153
Source
PM monthly #268 + pinned
Trades
37,360
Markets
460
Volume
$10.1M
Top consensus positions
32 in listed consensus markets · 30 of 32 on the consensus side (94%)- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No $214K · now 94¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No $184K · now 87¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $76K · now 96¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $25K · now 84¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $24K · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (81% of 47)
- Iran leadership change by November 30?No $21K · now 93¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (75% of 16)
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?No $15K · now 92¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (91% of 22)
- Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?No $13K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
Specialties
372 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 96¢- Finance
+4 pts
side won 98% of 84 · avg entry 94¢
ROI +3%
- Elections
+9 pts
side won 88% of 16 · avg entry 79¢
ROI −28%
- Politics
+8 pts
side won 92% of 12 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 87% of 86 at an average 94¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 50% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 75% of 4)
- 70¢ and up: 97%(won 97% of 362)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.