Consensus PnL $66K · win rate 88% (88–12, n=100) · hand-picked wallet · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$66.0K
Record
88W / 12L
Win Rate
88.0%
of 100 settled
Batting Avg
76.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#275
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
13,588
Markets
301
Volume
$2.2M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 6 on the consensus side (83%)- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?No $22K · now 94¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (56% of 27)
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in November?No $2.9K · now 97¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in November?No $2.8K · now 94¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No $2.8K · now 54¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (50% of 26)
- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $839 · now 54¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (74% of 27)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?No $145 · now 97¢ · in at 97¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
276 settled consensus markets · held side won 92% at an average entry of 91¢- Finance
+5 pts
side won 99% of 80 · avg entry 94¢
ROI +2%
- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 94% of 63 · avg entry 88¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 86% of 14 at an average 98¢ entry (−13 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 14% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 75% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 63% of 8)
- 70¢ and up: 93%(won 96% of 257)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.