Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in November?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $18K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$17.8K
-$4.6
96.5¢ → 96.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
61h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stupid22 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $7.7K | $7.7K | -$27.99 | 94% 412-26 (438) |
ZX zxdw | Noavg 96.1¢ | $6.9K | $6.9K | +$13.59 | 82% 37-8 (45) |
0X 0x963137a0BA0B02EBf6F37710023Cc1B0303289A1-1764031525036 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$11.19 | 82% 234-52 (286) |
SM SmallFishGamblerCTR | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $100 | $123.51 | +$23.52 | 44% 20-25 (45) |
 XAE12ArchangelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $61.5 | $57.03 | -$5.27 | 66% 784-407 (1191) |
TO TokorCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $15 | $17.75 | +$2.75 | 62% 795-490 (1285) |
Invested
$7,743.99
Value
$7.7K
PnL
-$27.99
Record
94%
412-26 (438)
Invested
$6,926.61
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$13.59
Record
82%
37-8 (45)
Invested
$2,925.5
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$11.19
Record
82%
234-52 (286)
Invested
$100
Value
$123.51
PnL
+$23.52
Record
44%
20-25 (45)
XAE12ArchangelCTR<$100Invested
$61.5
Value
$57.03
PnL
-$5.27
Record
66%
784-407 (1191)
Invested
$15
Value
$17.75
PnL
+$2.75
Record
62%
795-490 (1285)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.