Consensus PnL $159K · win rate 61% (363–229, n=592) · hand-picked wallet · holds 27 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$158.9K
Record
363W / 229L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 592 settled
Batting Avg
54.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1119
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
249,265
Markets
1,288
Volume
$25.3M
Top consensus positions
27 in listed consensus markets · 21 of 27 on the consensus side (78%)- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No $8.3K · now 83¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (67% of 24)
- Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?No $6.2K · now 94¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (89% of 9)
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in November?No $6.0K · now 96¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $4.5K · now 30¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?No $2.7K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?No $1.3K · now 87¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $950 · now 95¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (80% of 108)
- Will XRP reach $3.00 by December 31, 2026?No $741 · now 97¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
958 settled consensus markets · held side won 83% at an average entry of 81¢- Finance
+4 pts
side won 96% of 148 · avg entry 92¢
ROI 0%
- Politics
+3 pts
side won 90% of 58 · avg entry 86¢
ROI −4%
- Elections
+5 pts
side won 40% of 55 · avg entry 35¢
ROI −3%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 52% of 25 at an average 66¢ entry (−14 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 5% of 119)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 43% of 37)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 72% of 36)
- 70¢ and up: 80%(won 97% of 766)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.