Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 19, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$1.2K
-$308.41
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4825h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
24 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 99.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$2.77 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yes | $28.8 | $28.8 | -$210.59 | 7% 14-187 (201) |
FL flawfenceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $62.91 | $12.08 | -$50.83 | 46% 271-319 (590) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $44.8 | $8.62 | -$36.25 | 47% 83-94 (177) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $1.15 | $1.98 | -$13.5 | 39% 1780-2832 (4612) |
Invested
$1,106.98
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$2.77
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$28.8
PnL
-$210.59
Record
7%
14-187 (201)
Invested
$62.91
Value
$12.08
PnL
-$50.83
Record
46%
271-319 (590)
Invested
$44.8
Value
$8.62
PnL
-$36.25
Record
47%
83-94 (177)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$1.98
PnL
-$13.5
Record
39%
1780-2832 (4612)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.