Consensus PnL $896K · win rate 52% (260–241, n=501) · PM monthly #34 · holds 106 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$896.4K
Record
260W / 241L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 501 settled
Batting Avg
51.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1632
Source
PM monthly #34
Trades
685
Markets
659
Volume
$15.9M
Top consensus positions
106 in listed consensus markets · 58 of 106 on the consensus side (55%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $316K · now 65¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes $62K · now 79¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (69% of 30)
- Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?No $42K · now 81¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (62% of 13)
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes $38K · now 90¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (73% of 15)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No $36K · now 90¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (66% of 32)
- Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes $25K · now 12¢ · in at 9¢with the consensus (67% of 18)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $25K · now 48¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (39% of 57)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $23K · now 71¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (86% of 51)
Specialties
312 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 57¢- Soccer
+39 pts
side won 93% of 116 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +35%
- Elections
+28 pts
side won 86% of 165 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +21%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 18%(won 53% of 55)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 94% of 63)
- 50–70¢: 28%(won 93% of 86)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 99% of 108)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.