Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 5-6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 96¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.7K
-$1.7
83.2¢ → 96.4¢
+16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
136h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 thanksforplayin | Yesavg 81.5¢ | $732.35 | $865.74 | +$133.39 | 54% 304-254 (558) |
 HolyMoses7 | Yesavg 85.4¢ | $635.37 | $716.96 | +$81.58 | 53% 1543-1343 (2886) |
LA lava-lavaCTR | Noavg 15.7¢ | $230.42 | $70.16 | -$160.26 | 43% 535-721 (1256) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Yesavg 78.4¢ | $45.66 | $51.29 | +$9.55 | 28% 5957-15587 (21544) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 27.5¢ | $80.22 | $10.33 | -$65.96 | 18% 4056-19002 (23058) |
thanksforplayinInvested
$732.35
Value
$865.74
PnL
+$133.39
Record
54%
304-254 (558)
HolyMoses7Invested
$635.37
Value
$716.96
PnL
+$81.58
Record
53%
1543-1343 (2886)
Invested
$230.42
Value
$70.16
PnL
-$160.26
Record
43%
535-721 (1256)
Invested
$45.66
Value
$51.29
PnL
+$9.55
Record
28%
5957-15587 (21544)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$80.22
Value
$10.33
PnL
-$65.96
Record
18%
4056-19002 (23058)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.