Consensus PnL $187K · win rate 54% (1171–1002, n=2173) · PM monthly #604 · holds 80 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$187.2K
Record
1171W / 1002L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 2173 settled
Batting Avg
64.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1556
Source
PM monthly #604
Record (90 d)
175/422 · 41%
Trades
3,929
Markets
3,524
Volume
$32.9M
Top consensus positions
80 in listed consensus markets · 57 of 80 on the consensus side (71%)- Israeli Knesset election annulled?No $5.3K · now 98¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
- Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $4.1K · now 1¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (91% of 22)
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $3.6K · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (68% of 41)
- Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?No $3.0K · now 73¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (21% of 19)
- Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?No $2.9K · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?No $2.6K · now 72¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (43% of 14)
- Israeli election results in a hung parliament?No $2.4K · now 54¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $2.3K · now 28¢ · in at 15¢with the consensus (80% of 45)
Specialties
1,983 settled consensus markets · held side won 43% at an average entry of 42¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 59% of 352 · avg entry 55¢
ROI 0%
- Culture
+3 pts
side won 16% of 58 · avg entry 12¢
ROI 0%
- Politics
+3 pts
side won 38% of 85 · avg entry 35¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 32% of 81 at an average 32¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 57%(won 4% of 1132)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 43% of 49)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 80% of 41)
- 70¢ and up: 38%(won 99% of 761)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.