Consensus PnL $15K · win rate 55% (252–208, n=460) · was PM monthly #892 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$14.5K
Record
252W / 208L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 460 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1455
Source
PM monthly #892
Trades
155
Markets
566
Volume
$508.8K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?No $135 · now 27¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
393 settled consensus markets · held side won 47% at an average entry of 49¢- Crypto
+12 pts
side won 55% of 11 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +9%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 60% of 20 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +1%
- Entertainment
+6 pts
side won 86% of 14 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Weather — held side won 41% of 194 at an average 44¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 48%(won 7% of 190)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 30% of 23)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 65% of 17)
- 70¢ and up: 41%(won 95% of 163)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.