Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (58%) · Yes at 74¢ · $8K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes74¢No26¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 58%

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

$443.9

Smart Money Entry

63.5¢ → 74¢

+16% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares8,437

Combined PnL+$734.96

No5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares6,250

Combined PnL-$291.06

Yes — 58%No — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

2817h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

31 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Warren-Buffett	Yesavg 55.9¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$678.2	65% 862-465 (1327)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 89¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$219.9	89% 4653-547 (5200)
88 881112	Yesavg 54.5¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$52.29	38% 567-944 (1511)
GollumGekko	Yesavg 63.5¢	$782.62	$924.95	+$136.17	68% 2074-958 (3032)
BR browneCTR	Noavg 37.2¢	$1.0K	$715.53	-$308.34	71% 173-70 (243)
JO JoeBlack01CTR	Noavg 37.8¢	$652	$572	-$80	60% 474-313 (787)
eCash	Yesavg 68.1¢	$430.65	$467.42	+$36.77	68% 331-155 (486)
Car	Yesavg 58.7¢	$127.89	$160.54	+$32.65	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
0X 0x26b166604677eaef5f2e81b716f539ed2857cc81CTR	Noavg 25.8¢	$129.07	$130.15	+$1.08	54% 289-249 (538)
PorxCTR	Noavg 37.2¢	$58.01	$116.01	+$58.01	66% 1482-769 (2251)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 31.8¢	$53.07	$91.26	+$38.19	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438	Yesavg 62.5¢	$813.93	$11.79	+$18.79	50% 357-357 (714)

Warren-Buffett

Yes

Invested

$2,134.31

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$678.2

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$1,304.74

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$219.9

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

881112

Yes

Invested

$1,005.9

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$52.29

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

GollumGekko

Yes

Invested

$782.62

Value

$924.95

PnL

+$136.17

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

browneCTR

Invested

$1,023.87

Value

$715.53

PnL

-$308.34

Record

71%

173-70 (243)

JoeBlack01CTR

Invested

$652

Value

$572

PnL

-$80

Record

60%

474-313 (787)

eCash

Yes

Invested

$430.65

Value

$467.42

PnL

+$36.77

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

Car

Yes

Invested

$127.89

Value

$160.54

PnL

+$32.65

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

0x26b166604677eaef5f2e81b716f539ed2857cc81CTR

Invested

$129.07

Value

$130.15

PnL

+$1.08

Record

54%

289-249 (538)

PorxCTR

Invested

$58.01

Value

$116.01

PnL

+$58.01

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$53.07

Value

$91.26

PnL

+$38.19

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438

Yes

Invested

$813.93

Value

$11.79

PnL

+$18.79

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

2817h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

31 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.