Consensus PnL -$24K · win rate 51% (267–260, n=527) · was PM monthly #695 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-23.5K
Record
267W / 260L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 527 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1697
Source
PM monthly #695
Trades
111
Markets
534
Volume
$3.8M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Ravens $2.0K · now 54¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (56% of 18)
- Will Notre Dame Fighting Irish win the 2027 CFP National Championship?Yes $855 · now 14¢ · in at 14¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
Specialties
321 settled consensus markets · held side won 84% at an average entry of 56¢- College Football
+42 pts
side won 100% of 66 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +30%
- NFL
+40 pts
side won 96% of 52 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +34%
- Soccer
+41 pts
side won 100% of 26 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +24%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 38% of 13)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 75% of 71)
- 50–70¢: 58%(won 87% of 187)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 96% of 50)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.