Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (86%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Notre Dame Fighting Irish win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 14¢ · $8K held · ends Jan 26, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$7.7K
$2.5K
12.7¢ → 14.5¢
+14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
43 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nooserac | Noavg 86¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | -$19.65 | 52% 5832-5416 (11248) |
MI milkteabobaCTR | Yesavg 12.3¢ | $504.51 | $2.9K | +$2.4K | 69% 38-17 (55) |
0X 0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961CTR | Yesavg 14¢ | $825.69 | $855.17 | +$29.51 | 48% 231-253 (484) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 12.8¢ | $321.32 | $364.24 | +$42.95 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
PE peepeepooppoop | Noavg 80.6¢ | $132.33 | $139.2 | +$7.99 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $42 | $43.5 | +$1.5 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
BU button-clickerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $29.74 | $30.8 | +$1.06 | 58% 161-116 (277) |
NooseracInvested
$3,379.54
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$19.65
Record
52%
5832-5416 (11248)
Invested
$504.51
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$2.4K
Record
69%
38-17 (55)
Invested
$825.69
Value
$855.17
PnL
+$29.51
Record
48%
231-253 (484)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$321.32
Value
$364.24
PnL
+$42.95
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$132.33
Value
$139.2
PnL
+$7.99
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$42
Value
$43.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
Invested
$29.74
Value
$30.8
PnL
+$1.06
Record
58%
161-116 (277)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.