Consensus PnL $165K · win rate 70% (19435–8247, n=27682) · PM monthly #855 · holds 36 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$165.4K
Record
19435W / 8247L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 27682 settled
Batting Avg
39.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#730
Source
PM monthly #855
Trades
578
Markets
105,733
Volume
$12.9M
Top consensus positions
36 in listed consensus markets · 25 of 36 on the consensus side (69%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ETUp $174 · now 100¢ · in at 81¢against the consensus (Down)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ETUp $92 · now 100¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (86% of 23)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ETUp $67 · now 100¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (62% of 23)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ETDown $55 · now 100¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (64% of 27)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ETUp $54 · now 100¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (89% of 18)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:45PM-5:00PM ETDown $50 · now 100¢ · in at 83¢against the consensus (Up)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ETUp $49 · now 100¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (74% of 24)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ETUp $46 · now 100¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (79% of 19)
Specialties
14,599 settled consensus markets · held side won 87% at an average entry of 60¢- MLB
+48 pts
side won 99% of 573 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +40%
- NBA
+48 pts
side won 95% of 226 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +38%
- NHL
+48 pts
side won 98% of 96 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +36%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 31% of 1035)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 85% of 2805)
- 50–70¢: 43%(won 93% of 6247)
- 70¢ and up: 31%(won 92% of 4512)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.