Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

13 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Up (62%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 62%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$7.96

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 100¢

+38% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 21 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$874.27

Total Shares2,531

Combined PnL-$107.01

Up13 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,175

Combined PnL+$99.04

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 57.4¢	$652.04	$601.83	-$50.21	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 67¢	$522.84	$469.19	-$53.65	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 67¢	$457.34	$463.9	+$6.56	55% 15793-13173 (28966)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700	Upavg 87.2¢	$263.5	$288.43	+$24.93	63% 1793-1073 (2866)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 54.1¢	$174.61	$229.17	+$54.56	56% 14039-11169 (25208)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 36.3¢	$198.3	$193.58	-$4.72	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.3¢	$161.39	$153.32	-$8.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.1¢	$36.91	$40.26	+$3.35
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 87.3¢	$166.35	$179.44	+$13.09	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
BoneOhio	Upavg 90¢	$135	$143.25	+$8.25	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 48.1¢	$120.84	$124.25	+$3.41	56% 8353-6485 (14838)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$112.44	$117.06	+$4.62	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$68	$86.7	+$18.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$44.44	$30.36	-$14.08
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 86.2¢	$82.8	$89.03	+$6.23	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 59.6¢	$41.74	$66.84	+$25.1	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 63.6¢	$59.54	$62.67	+$3.13	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 58.5¢	$52.28	$54.34	+$7.77	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100	Downavg 13.1¢	$78.41	$44.83	-$33.57	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Downavg 30.2¢	$67.91	$42.86	-$25.04	56% 12755-9823 (22578)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 69¢	$33.54	$34.87	+$1.33	55% 24178-19509 (43687)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 90¢	$34.52	$32.14	-$2.38	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 49.1¢	$34.01	$25.96	-$8.04	35% 19121-36132 (55253)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$15.03	$22.54	+$7.51	59% 62677-43754 (106431)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 64.9¢	$9.06	$13.17	+$4.12	46% 38677-45770 (84447)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$11	$9.72	-$1.28	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.28	+$0.22	56% 58635-45291 (103926)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$652.04

Value

$601.83

PnL

-$50.21

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

ply-pm0

Invested

$522.84

Value

$469.19

PnL

-$53.65

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$457.34

Value

$463.9

PnL

+$6.56

Record

55%

15793-13173 (28966)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

Invested

$263.5

Value

$288.43

PnL

+$24.93

Record

63%

1793-1073 (2866)

GoodFallen

Invested

$174.61

Value

$229.17

PnL

+$54.56

Record

56%

14039-11169 (25208)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$198.3

Value

$193.58

PnL

-$4.72

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

Both legs:

Down$161.3936.3¢-$8.07

Up$36.9160.1¢+$3.35

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$166.35

Value

$179.44

PnL

+$13.09

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

BoneOhio

Invested

$135

Value

$143.25

PnL

+$8.25

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$120.84

Value

$124.25

PnL

+$3.41

Record

56%

8353-6485 (14838)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$112.44

Value

$117.06

PnL

+$4.62

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

Both legs:

Up$6851.4¢+$18.7

Down$44.4450.5¢-$14.08

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$82.8

Value

$89.03

PnL

+$6.23

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$41.74

Value

$66.84

PnL

+$25.1

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$59.54

Value

$62.67

PnL

+$3.13

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$52.28

Value

$54.34

PnL

+$7.77

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$78.41

Value

$44.83

PnL

-$33.57

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$67.91

Value

$42.86

PnL

-$25.04

Record

56%

12755-9823 (22578)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$33.54

Value

$34.87

PnL

+$1.33

Record

55%

24178-19509 (43687)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$34.52

Value

$32.14

PnL

-$2.38

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.01

Value

$25.96

PnL

-$8.04

Record

35%

19121-36132 (55253)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.03

Value

$22.54

PnL

+$7.51

Record

59%

62677-43754 (106431)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$9.06

Value

$13.17

PnL

+$4.12

Record

46%

38677-45770 (84447)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11

Value

$9.72

PnL

-$1.28

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.22

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

13 of 21 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.