Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET

18 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Up (86%) · Up at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 86%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$162.67

Smart Money Entry

79.4¢ → 100¢

+26% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 21 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,985

Combined PnL+$121.15

Down3 traders

Total Value$223.18

Total Shares347

Combined PnL+$41.52

Up — 86%Down — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 88.4¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$68.4	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 58.7¢	$267.85	$409.72	+$141.88	55% 15793-13173 (28966)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 92.6¢	$496.32	$373.53	-$122.79	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
machinelearned	Upavg 77.1¢	$251.54	$266.26	+$14.72	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
BoneOhio	Upavg 76¢	$170.98	$203.6	+$32.62	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
pspspsps5CTR	Downavg 29.3¢	$136.84	$171.7	+$34.86	46% 38677-45770 (84447)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 64.7¢	$110.16	$150.8	+$40.64	56% 12755-9823 (22578)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 57.6¢	$113.14	$147.55	+$34.41	56% 14039-11169 (25208)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 56.1¢	$123.59	$119.72	-$2.07	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.1¢	$74.69	$76.57	+$0.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.4¢	$46.1	$43.15	-$2.94
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 67.5¢	$78.89	$105.82	+$26.93	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 59.8¢	$83.82	$98.56	+$14.74	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.8¢	$62.7	$65.56	+$2.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 24¢	$21.12	$33	+$11.88
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 79.9¢	$83.9	$91.88	+$7.97	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 70.2¢	$59.65	$76.93	+$17.28	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 72.1¢	$55.15	$69.26	+$14.11	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 69.2¢	$42.41	$55.43	+$13.03	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 84.8¢	$49.28	$52.62	+$3.34	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 84.9¢	$45.64	$49.76	+$4.27	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 77¢	$77	$46.5	-$30.5	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$39.61	$39.28	-$0.33	56% 8353-6485 (14838)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 62.5¢	$48.81	$37.39	-$9.26	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 96¢	$34.3	$35.19	+$0.89	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 57.5¢	$23	$23	+$0	55% 24178-19509 (43687)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 22.8¢	$5.21	$12.21	+$7	52% 91321-85769 (177090)

ply-pm0

Invested

$1,706.62

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$68.4

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$267.85

Value

$409.72

PnL

+$141.88

Record

55%

15793-13173 (28966)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$496.32

Value

$373.53

PnL

-$122.79

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

machinelearned

Invested

$251.54

Value

$266.26

PnL

+$14.72

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

BoneOhio

Invested

$170.98

Value

$203.6

PnL

+$32.62

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

pspspsps5CTR

Down

Invested

$136.84

Value

$171.7

PnL

+$34.86

Record

46%

38677-45770 (84447)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$110.16

Value

$150.8

PnL

+$40.64

Record

56%

12755-9823 (22578)

GoodFallen

Invested

$113.14

Value

$147.55

PnL

+$34.41

Record

56%

14039-11169 (25208)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$123.59

Value

$119.72

PnL

-$2.07

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

Both legs:

Up$74.6956.1¢+$0.88

Down$46.145.4¢-$2.94

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$78.89

Value

$105.82

PnL

+$26.93

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$83.82

Value

$98.56

PnL

+$14.74

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

Both legs:

Up$62.759.8¢+$2.86

Down$21.1224¢+$11.88

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$83.9

Value

$91.88

PnL

+$7.97

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$59.65

Value

$76.93

PnL

+$17.28

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$55.15

Value

$69.26

PnL

+$14.11

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$42.41

Value

$55.43

PnL

+$13.03

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$49.28

Value

$52.62

PnL

+$3.34

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$45.64

Value

$49.76

PnL

+$4.27

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$77

Value

$46.5

PnL

-$30.5

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$39.61

Value

$39.28

PnL

-$0.33

Record

56%

8353-6485 (14838)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$48.81

Value

$37.39

PnL

-$9.26

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$34.3

Value

$35.19

PnL

+$0.89

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$23

Value

$23

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

24178-19509 (43687)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.21

Value

$12.21

PnL

+$7

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 21 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.