Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 6 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET

6 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Up (33%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$150.19

Smart Money Entry

33.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 18 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,850

Combined PnL+$380.18

Down12 traders

Total Value$928.25

Total Shares1,109

Combined PnL-$229.98

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
wowitsamazingCTR	Upavg 30.9¢	$791.8	$1.2K	+$427.31	57% 12760-9487 (22247)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 76¢	$874.57	$837.98	-$36.59	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76¢	$763.91	$527.49	-$236.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.9¢	$110.66	$310.49	+$199.82
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 80.4¢	$303.02	$258.36	-$44.66	54% 11314-9625 (20939)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 96.9¢	$307.28	$166.43	-$140.86	93% 24319-1811 (26130)
BoneOhio	Downavg 65.6¢	$105.55	$118.94	+$13.39	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 90.3¢	$113.35	$90.45	-$22.58	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 59.4¢	$90.2	$90.28	+$0.08	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 82.7¢	$51.3	$50.48	-$0.82	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 88.7¢	$52.73	$46.31	-$6.42	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 89.7¢	$52.5	$43.88	-$8.62	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
NIULAI4<$100	Downavg 99¢	$42.57	$42.98	+$0.41	76% 9516-2949 (12465)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 89.5¢	$42.95	$39.23	-$3.72	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 86.3¢	$46.5	$37.98	-$8.53	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 58.8¢	$29.4	$21.6	-$7.8	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 74¢	$30.8	$18.38	-$6.92	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 51.7¢	$15.5	$14.85	-$0.65	58% 51349-37471 (88820)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Upavg 61.5¢	$37.14	$11.37	-$25.77	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 60.6¢	$10.9	$10.16	-$0.74	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
AS asabovesobelow2CTR<$100	Upavg 62.3¢	$18.5	$5.6	-$12.9	68% 1708-799 (2507)

wowitsamazingCTR

Invested

$791.8

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$427.31

Record

57%

12760-9487 (22247)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$874.57

Value

$837.98

PnL

-$36.59

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

Both legs:

Down$763.9176¢-$236.41

Up$110.6616.9¢+$199.82

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$303.02

Value

$258.36

PnL

-$44.66

Record

54%

11314-9625 (20939)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$307.28

Value

$166.43

PnL

-$140.86

Record

93%

24319-1811 (26130)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$105.55

Value

$118.94

PnL

+$13.39

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$113.35

Value

$90.45

PnL

-$22.58

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$90.2

Value

$90.28

PnL

+$0.08

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$51.3

Value

$50.48

PnL

-$0.82

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$52.73

Value

$46.31

PnL

-$6.42

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$52.5

Value

$43.88

PnL

-$8.62

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

NIULAI4<$100

Down

Invested

$42.57

Value

$42.98

PnL

+$0.41

Record

76%

9516-2949 (12465)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$42.95

Value

$39.23

PnL

-$3.72

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$46.5

Value

$37.98

PnL

-$8.53

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

$21.6

PnL

-$7.8

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$30.8

Value

$18.38

PnL

-$6.92

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$15.5

Value

$14.85

PnL

-$0.65

Record

58%

51349-37471 (88820)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Invested

$37.14

Value

$11.37

PnL

-$25.77

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$10.9

Value

$10.16

PnL

-$0.74

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

asabovesobelow2CTR<$100

Invested

$18.5

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$12.9

Record

68%

1708-799 (2507)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 18 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.