Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

16 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Down (64%) · Down at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 1

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$114.31

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 100¢

+66% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 25 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,002

Combined PnL+$325.9

Up9 traders

Total Value$882.09

Total Shares1,908

Combined PnL-$211.58

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 55.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$38.68	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 57.6¢	$752.19	$896.31	+$144.12	55% 15793-13173 (28966)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 47.8¢	$799.96	$814.15	+$14.19	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.9¢	$322.08	$619.03	+$296.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.8¢	$477.88	$195.12	-$282.76
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 38¢	$585.27	$593.13	+$7.86	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
machinelearned	Downavg 62.9¢	$525.06	$558.62	+$33.57	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 72.7¢	$299.46	$341.56	+$42.1	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 60¢	$246.16	$245.72	-$0.44	56% 14039-11169 (25208)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 84.9¢	$167.21	$196	+$28.78	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 53.6¢	$97.07	$106.1	+$9.03	56% 12755-9823 (22578)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR	Upavg 72.4¢	$130.5	$100.67	-$29.83	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 28.1¢	$128.77	$96.07	-$32.7	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.1¢	$49.89	$69.4	+$19.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.1¢	$78.88	$26.67	-$52.21
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 66.1¢	$277.68	$81.89	-$195.79	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 59.6¢	$53	$54.88	+$1.88	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 81.1¢	$48.1	$41.76	-$6.34	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 55¢	$34.8	$38.91	+$4.11	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 19.5¢	$37.32	$37.97	+$0.65	46% 38677-45770 (84447)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$21.6	$36.64	+$15.04	51% 20375-19462 (39837)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 71.8¢	$25.13	$34.83	+$9.7	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 30.8¢	$23.75	$32.9	+$9.15	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 50¢	$25	$30.75	+$5.75	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 54.5¢	$50.59	$29.92	-$0.96	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 32¢	$11.37	$17.59	+$6.22	35% 19121-36132 (55253)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 6¢	$10.07	$15.95	+$5.88	59% 62677-43754 (106431)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 50.4¢	$14.94	$15.5	+$0.56	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 72¢	$10.35	$6.11	-$4.24	55% 18379-14972 (33351)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$1,164.68

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$38.68

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$752.19

Value

$896.31

PnL

+$144.12

Record

55%

15793-13173 (28966)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$799.96

Value

$814.15

PnL

+$14.19

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

Both legs:

Down$322.0841.9¢+$296.95

Up$477.8847.8¢-$282.76

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$585.27

Value

$593.13

PnL

+$7.86

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$525.06

Value

$558.62

PnL

+$33.57

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$299.46

Value

$341.56

PnL

+$42.1

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$246.16

Value

$245.72

PnL

-$0.44

Record

56%

14039-11169 (25208)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$167.21

Value

$196

PnL

+$28.78

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$97.07

Value

$106.1

PnL

+$9.03

Record

56%

12755-9823 (22578)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR

Invested

$130.5

Value

$100.67

PnL

-$29.83

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$128.77

Value

$96.07

PnL

-$32.7

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

Both legs:

Down$49.8965.1¢+$19.51

Up$78.8828.1¢-$52.21

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$277.68

Value

$81.89

PnL

-$195.79

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$53

Value

$54.88

PnL

+$1.88

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$48.1

Value

$41.76

PnL

-$6.34

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$34.8

Value

$38.91

PnL

+$4.11

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$37.32

Value

$37.97

PnL

+$0.65

Record

46%

38677-45770 (84447)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$21.6

Value

$36.64

PnL

+$15.04

Record

51%

20375-19462 (39837)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$25.13

Value

$34.83

PnL

+$9.7

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$23.75

Value

$32.9

PnL

+$9.15

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$25

Value

$30.75

PnL

+$5.75

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$50.59

Value

$29.92

PnL

-$0.96

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$11.37

Value

$17.59

PnL

+$6.22

Record

35%

19121-36132 (55253)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$10.07

Value

$15.95

PnL

+$5.88

Record

59%

62677-43754 (106431)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$14.94

Value

$15.5

PnL

+$0.56

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$10.35

Value

$6.11

PnL

-$4.24

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 25 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.