Consensus PnL $124K · win rate 51% (193–187, n=380) · hand-picked wallet · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$123.5K
Record
193W / 187L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 380 settled
Batting Avg
46.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1701
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
11,707
Markets
548
Volume
$2.6M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $6.5K · now 84¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $5.3K · now 72¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (67% of 67)
- Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?No $2.2K · now 95¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $889 · now 65¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
Specialties
471 settled consensus markets · held side won 54% at an average entry of 53¢- Finance
+3 pts
side won 49% of 63 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 41% of 17 at an average 52¢ entry (−10 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 13% of 63)
- 30–50¢: 27%(won 38% of 127)
- 50–70¢: 43%(won 62% of 202)
- 70¢ and up: 17%(won 89% of 79)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.