Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on November 2?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 84¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$1.2K
$188.79
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 69.1¢ | $752.3 | $824.99 | +$72.87 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 19.8¢ | $235.37 | $351.05 | +$115.68 | 47% 703-785 (1488) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $15.12 | $13.44 | -$1.68 | 62% 1447-905 (2352) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $3.1 | $4.8 | +$1.7 | 59% 1929-1356 (3285) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $1.28 | $1.5 | +$0.23 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
IstarothInvested
$752.3
Value
$824.99
PnL
+$72.87
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
Invested
$235.37
Value
$351.05
PnL
+$115.68
Record
47%
703-785 (1488)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$15.12
Value
$13.44
PnL
-$1.68
Record
62%
1447-905 (2352)
Invested
$3.1
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$1.7
Record
59%
1929-1356 (3285)
Invested
$1.28
Value
$1.5
PnL
+$0.23
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.